As California prepares for the upcoming gubernatorial race, the Democratic field remains wide open, with no clear frontrunner emerging from the eight major candidates. At this past weekend’s convention, the California Democratic Party refrained from endorsing any candidate, as none were able to secure the necessary 60% support from delegates. While the race has yet to solidify, the crowded field is raising concerns among political experts about the potential for vote splitting, particularly with early voting set to begin in just a few months.
Among the candidates, some have used the convention to bolster their campaigns, even if polling remains in the single digits. Former State Controller Betty Yee, despite not receiving an endorsement, touted her momentum, claiming she had reshaped the race. Similarly, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra’s team highlighted his endorsement from Young Democrats and emphasized his “strong performance” at the event, suggesting a clear path forward.
However, experts warn that the large number of Democratic contenders and lack of a dominant leader could result in a fractured vote. While it’s unlikely that two Republicans will make it to the general election, the possibility of a split vote still looms as a risk, especially with figures like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News host Steve Hilton leading among Republicans.
“There’s a very slim chance that no Democrats advance, but the possibility is still out there,” said Paul Mitchell, Vice President of Political Data. Political consultant Rob Stutzman echoed this, emphasizing that while the scenario is improbable, it’s still a possibility in such a wide-open race.
The Democratic slate includes an array of candidates, from the more well-known figures like Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, to the lesser-known yet ambitious candidates like San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer. With only a few months left before the March 6 filing deadline, there’s a chance that one or more candidates may drop out of the race, potentially narrowing the field.
However, if two Republicans, such as Bianco and Hilton, manage to secure spots in the general election, the consequences for the Democratic Party could be severe. “If Republicans manage to box out the Democrats, it would be catastrophic,” Mitchell explained. “Not only would we lose the governor’s office, but the lower turnout would affect other statewide races, potentially undoing the gains made by the Democrats in congressional districts.”
The Democratic Party is likely to focus significant resources in the coming months to elevate its most viable candidates. With midterm elections typically favoring the incumbent party, Democrats are determined to avoid a situation in which Republicans dominate, especially in a year when anti-Trump sentiment still fuels much of the Democratic agenda. Stutzman believes that the party will push hard to consolidate its support and ensure a Democrat takes the governor’s seat, emphasizing that despite a crowded field, the numbers remain in the Democrats’ favor due to the difficult political landscape for Republicans.
As the race intensifies, it’s clear that the Democratic Party will have to address its internal divisions and unify behind a strong candidate if it hopes to secure a win in California’s highly competitive gubernatorial race.
